Society of Government
Meeting Professionals
908 King Street, Lower Level
Alexandria, VA 22314
703-549-0892
Fax: 703-549-0708

Trends in Government Travel:

• LODGING FORECAST
• Per Smith Travel Research (10-10-04 HSMAI Update) occupancy levels in the top U.S. markets averaged 67.8%, up 3% same time last year. ADR was up just cents from $83.50 to $83.97. Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) predicts (HSMAI update 8-20-04), that after two years of decline, REVPAR is expected to stabilize in 2004 at 0.2 percent. Given slight upward revisions to already strong real GDP growth forecasts, and downward revisions to inflation forecasts in the next two years, REVPAR is expected to increase by 4.9 percent in 2005 and 3.4 percent in 2006. The best news, according to Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D. is the 2005 growth of 4.9%. "In great years, the lodging industry demand has grown by 4%. But it will be tempered by the fact that construction activity didn't slow." Furthermore, after six consecutive quarters of occupancy gains, PWC forecasts that ADR increases will increase by the first quarter of 2005, and become the larger contributor to RevPAR advances. Overall, RevPAR in 2005 is forecast to rise by 4.9 percent to $51.92 which translates to a 3.7 percent gain in real RevPAR from the prior year.
• St. Louis occupancy 2004 (MO-IL) 59.4% up 1.9%, ADR increased 3.5%, and REVPAR up 5.3%. Furthermore, St. Louis Airport occupancy 61.4% up 1.7%, ADR increased 2.6% and REVPAR up 4.3% at $39.59 per available room.